The Indian rupee is expected to open weaker on Friday, pressured by the U.S. dollar’s renewed strength after President Donald Trump signaled a potential increase in tariffs. Trump proposed blanket tariffs of 15–20% on most trade partners, up from the current 10%, stirring global trade concerns.
The one-month non-deliverable forward (NDF) suggests the rupee may open in the 85.70–85.74 range against the U.S. dollar, compared to 85.6350 at Thursday’s close.
A currency trader noted that the modest upward movement in USD/INR doesn't materially shift the short-term outlook. “We may see interbank players fade the move if it nears the 85.90–86.00 levels, which offer attractive risk-reward based on recent trading patterns,” the trader said.
The U.S. dollar index strengthened to 97.84, putting pressure on Asian currencies. Trump's broader tariff stance—combined with a newly announced 35% tariff on Canadian imports from August 1—has injected fresh uncertainty into U.S. trade policy.
Despite the headlines, market reactions across Asian equities, currencies, and rates remain muted. The rupee has stayed within the 85.50–86.00 range this week, a level considered consistent with market expectations.
While the dollar index has gained 0.8% this week, it follows an 11% drop in the first half of the year. Analysts at ING Bank note that while trade headlines affect sentiment, macroeconomic data—especially next week’s U.S. inflation report—is likely to have a more substantial impact on FX markets.
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